Is it better to hold bonds to maturity?
Individual bonds
Investors of bonds, however, may decide it is more advantageous to sell a bond rather than hold it to maturity. Some of these reasons include anticipation of higher interest rates, that the issuer's credit will be lowered, or if the market price seems unreasonably high.
If sold prior to maturity, market price may be higher or lower than what you paid for the bond, leading to a capital gain or loss. If bought and held to maturity investor is not affected by market risk.
A bond may mature in a few months or in a few years. Maturity can also affect interest rate risk. The longer the bond's maturity, the greater the risk that the bond's value could be impacted by changing interest rates prior to maturity, which may have a negative effect on the price of the bond.
The fixed rate rose to 0.4% in November 2022 so any I bond purchased after that date should be held. Likewise, you may want to hold on to I bonds issued between May and October 2023. Those I bonds have a fixed rate of 0.9%, which is the highest fixed rate in 16 years.
However, by selling bonds after they have risen in price – and before maturity – investors can realize price appreciation, also known as capital appreciation, on bonds. Capturing the capital appreciation on bonds increases their total return, which is the combination of income and capital appreciation.
If you decide to sell a bond before its maturity, the price you receive could result in a loss or gain depending on the current interest rate environment. The longer a bond's maturity—or the longer the average duration for a bond fund—the greater the impact a change in interest rates can have on its price.
Even if the stock market crashes, you aren't likely to see your bond investments take large hits. However, businesses that have been hard hit by the crash may have a difficult time repaying their bonds.
When the economy is in a downturn, investors may shift their portfolios towards bonds as a "flight to safety" to protect their capital. This shift increases the demand for bonds, raising their price but reducing their yield.
If bond yields rise, existing bonds lose value. The change in bond values only relates to a bond's price on the open market, meaning if the bond is sold before maturity, the seller will obtain a higher or lower price for the bond compared to its face value, depending on current interest rates.
Why bonds are not a good investment?
Holding bond funds for shorter periods than that opens you to the risk of further, short-term gyrations in your fund's value, without sufficient time for recovery. And if you buy longer-term individual bonds and have to sell them, you risk the kinds of losses that investors have been experiencing lately.
Historically, bonds have provided lower long-term returns than stocks. Bond prices fall when interest rates go up. Long-term bonds, especially, suffer from price fluctuations as interest rates rise and fall.
These are the risks of holding bonds: Risk #1: When interest rates fall, bond prices rise. Risk #2: Having to reinvest proceeds at a lower rate than what the funds were previously earning. Risk #3: When inflation increases dramatically, bonds can have a negative rate of return.
Use the Education Exclusion
With that in mind, you have one option for avoiding taxes on savings bonds: the education exclusion. You can skip paying taxes on interest earned with Series EE and Series I savings bonds if you're using the money to pay for qualified higher education costs.
| Face Value | Purchase Amount | 30-Year Value (Purchased May 1990) |
|---|---|---|
| $50 Bond | $100 | $207.36 |
| $100 Bond | $200 | $414.72 |
| $500 Bond | $400 | $1,036.80 |
| $1,000 Bond | $800 | $2,073.60 |
We expect bond yields to decline in line with falling inflation and slower economic growth, but uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's policy moves will likely be a source of volatility. Nonetheless, we are optimistic that fixed income will deliver positive returns in 2024.
Interest rate changes are the primary culprit when bond exchange-traded funds (ETFs) lose value. As interest rates rise, the prices of existing bonds fall, which impacts the value of the ETFs holding these assets.
This would be your interest-based return if you built a 100% bond portfolio overnight. In the long run, if you were to only invest in AAA corporate bonds over time, you can expect a modern yield between 4% and 5%. Historic rates have been higher, sometimes up to 15%, leading to a 30-year average of 6.1%.
Call risk is the likelihood that a bond's term will be cut short by the issuer if interest rates fall. Default risk is the chance that the issuer will be unable to meet its financial obligations. Inflation risk is the possibility that inflation will erode the value of a fixed-price bond issue.
As investors sold bonds, prices would go down and interest rates would rise. This in effect would accomplish the Fed's goal of raising interest rates to cool the economy, but without actually having to do anything.
What risk do investors face if they keep their bond until maturity if they sell them before maturity?
However, investors who sell their bonds prior to maturity will only receive the interest due on the bond until the date of the sale. They will lose all rights to the interest that would have accrued between the date of the sale and the bond's maturity date.
Investment-grade corporate bonds and government bonds such as US Treasurys have historically delivered higher returns during recessions than high-yield corporate bonds.
During a recession, investing in cash and cash equivalents becomes a strategic choice for investors who are hoping to preserve their capital and maintain liquidity. Cash equivalents include short-term, highly liquid assets with minimal risk, such as Treasury bills, money market funds and certificates of deposit.
Because of their higher level of sensitivity to interest rates, long-term bonds have historically fared best during recessions, although intermediate-term bonds and cash have also been pretty resilient.
CDs are usually best for investors looking for a safe, shorter-term investment. Bonds are typically longer, higher-risk investments that deliver greater returns and a predictable income.
