Do index funds ever fail?
Much of it, yes, but not entirely. In a broad-based sell-off of a market, the benchmark index will lose value accordingly. That means an index fund tied to the benchmark will also lose value.
The point isn't to compare active and passive strategies, but rather to make sure you understand that index funds aren't necessarily safe investments. You can lose money if investments in the index lose value. Since many of those indices are financial markets, you should expect them to go down from time to time.
And there is always the risk that the company could completely collapse into bankruptcy, obliterating your investment. In an index fund, even if one company in that specific market index collapses, there are other companies in the index to carry your investment forward.
According to our calculations, a $1000 investment made in February 2014 would be worth $5,971.20, or a gain of 497.12%, as of February 5, 2024, and this return excludes dividends but includes price increases. Compare this to the S&P 500's rally of 178.17% and gold's return of 55.50% over the same time frame.
While they offer advantages like lower risk through diversification and strong long-term returns, index funds are also subject to market swings and lack the flexibility of active management.
Can an S&P 500 index fund investor lose all their money? Anything is possible, of course, but it's highly unlikely. For an S&P 500 investor to lose all of their money, every stock in the 500 company index would have to crash to zero.
Even the top investors put their money in index funds.
In fact, a number of billionaire investors count S&P 500 index funds among their top holdings. Among those are Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, Dalio's Bridgewater, and Griffin's Citadel.
No Control Over Holdings. Indexes are set portfolios. If an investor buys an index fund, they have no control over the individual holdings in the portfolio. You may have specific companies that you like and want to own, such as a favorite bank or food company that you have researched and want to buy.
- Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ 0.23%) ...
- iShares Core S&P Total U.S. Stock Market ETF (ITOT 0.83%) ...
- Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP -0.09%) ...
- iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF (SGOV 0.02%) ...
- Vanguard Utilities ETF (VPU 0.08%) ...
- iShares U.S. Healthcare Providers ETF (IHF 0.86%) ...
- Schwab U.S. TIPS ETF (SCHP -0.08%)
Investors, however, must consider the index fund that they select since not every one is low-cost, not some may be better at tracking an index than others. Moreover, owning an index does not mean you are immune from risk or losses if the markets take a downturn.
How much is $10,000 invested in Tesla 10 years ago?
If you invested $10,000 with founder Elon Musk 10 years ago, your stake would be worth $2.1 million now. That works out to a more than 70% average annual return. The same $10,000 put into the S&P 500 during that time grew just 274% to $37,376. That's just 14% compounded annually.
If you invested in the company 10 years ago, that decision could have paid off. According to CNBC calculations, a $1,000 investment in Coca-Cola in 2009 would be worth more than $2,800 as of Feb. 15, 2019.
| Discount Rate | Present Value | Future Value |
|---|---|---|
| 4% | $1,000 | $2,191.12 |
| 5% | $1,000 | $2,653.30 |
| 6% | $1,000 | $3,207.14 |
| 7% | $1,000 | $3,869.68 |
Disadvantages include the lack of downside protection, no choice in index composition, and it cannot beat the market (by definition). To index invest, find an index, find a fund tracking that index, and then find a broker to buy shares in that fund.
Some index funds provide exposure to thousands of securities in a single fund, which helps lower your overall risk through broad diversification. By investing in several index funds tracking different indexes you can built a portfolio that matches your desired asset allocation.
To be sure, if you have the time, knowledge, and desire to create a portfolio of individual stocks, by all means, go for it. But even if you do own individual stocks, index funds can form a solid base for your portfolio. Index funds offer investors of all skill levels a simple, successful way to invest.
For instance, in a major sell-off, when an index itself loses value, an index fund holding the underlying securities of the index will also lose value. However, investors who hold on to their fund investments should see the fund value increase as the value of the index itself reverses course and increases.
Returns in the S&P 500 over the coming decade are more likely to be in the 3%-6% range, as multiples and margins are unlikely to expand, leaving sales growth, buybacks, and dividends as the main drivers of appreciation.
Key Takeaways
Liquidation of ETFs is strictly regulated. When an ETF closes, the remaining shareholders will receive a payout based on whatever they had invested in the ETF.
An S&P 500 index fund essentially lets investors diversify capital across many of the most influential companies in the world. Warren Buffett sees that diversity as a compelling reason to invest. He once described the S&P 500 as a "cross-section of businesses that in aggregate are bound to do well."
What does Warren Buffett invest in?
| Stock | Number of Shares Owned | Value of Stake |
|---|---|---|
| Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) | 915,560,382 | $168.3 billion |
| Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) | 1,032,852,006 | $33.2 billion |
| American Express (NYSE:AXP) | 151,610,700 | $27.3 billion |
| Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) | 400,000,000 | $24.1 billion |
Buffett's favorite ETF
A -0.70%) (BRK. B -0.55%) portfolio: the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY 0.15%) and the Vanguard 500 Index Fund ETF (VOO 0.06%).
The securities that underlie the funds are held by a custodian, not by Vanguard. Vanguard is paid by the funds to provide administration and other services. If Vanguard ever did go bankrupt, the funds would not be affected and would simply hire another firm to provide these services.
The S&P 500, through index funds from the likes of Vanguard and SPDR, provides long-term returns that have historically outpaced inflation.
Rowe Price U.S. Equity Research fund (ticker: PRCOX) is in this exclusive club, having bested—along with a team of about 30 research analysts—the S&P 500 index for the past five years on an annualized basis. U.S. Equity Research is a Morningstar five-star gold-medal fund.
