After a Rip-Roaring 2023, the Markets Are Taking a Breather (2024)

Business|After a Rip-Roaring 2023, the Markets Are Taking a Breather

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/13/business/after-a-rip-roaring-2023-the-markets-are-taking-a-breather.html

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Strategies

The stock market’s long-term path has been persistently upward, our columnist says, but there have been plenty of setbacks and it’s wise to prepare for more.

After a Rip-Roaring 2023, the Markets Are Taking a Breather (1)

After a Rip-Roaring 2023, the Markets Are Taking a Breather (2)

By Jeff Sommer

Jeff Sommer writes Strategies, a weekly column on markets, finance and the economy.

It was a great year for the stock market and for the vast majority of investors in workplace retirement accounts.

But let’s not get carried away.

Even after the 2023 gains, most stock investors are only barely above water since the start of 2022. It looks better when you include dividends. Then, the S&P 500 returned 3.42 percent over the course of the two calendar years. Even so, the paltry stock market increases haven’t kept up with inflation.

If you can stand the pain, recall the simultaneous declines in the stock and bond markets that made 2022 a terrible year for investors. It was arguably even worse than 2008, when the stock market collapsed during the great financial crisis. In 2022, bonds declined sharply in value as interest rates rose, while during the financial crisis, investment-grade bonds rallied as interest rates declined.

Lately, the markets have been much kinder to investors, with both stocks and bonds holding their own.

The good returns for 2023 are thanks in no small part to the brilliant performance of the last three months of the year — fueled by growing expectations that the U.S. economy will avoid a recession, and that the Federal Reserve will soon begin to cut short-term interest rates.

The final quarterly and annual numbers for 2023 were exceptionally good. They translate into substantial annual gains for millions of investors who hold stocks and bonds indirectly, through mutual funds, exchange-traded funds and trusts, often in workplace retirement accounts.

So if you have held broadly diversified investments that track the markets, endured the bad times of 2022 and persevered through 2023, you are probably doing OK. You may even be slightly ahead of where your portfolio stood at the start of 2022.

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After a Rip-Roaring 2023, the Markets Are Taking a Breather (2024)

FAQs

What will the stock market return in 2023? ›

Let's review the good times of late 2023. The S&P 500, which tracks the most valuable stocks in the U.S. market, rose 11.2 percent in the last quarter — and had a total return of 11.7 percent, including dividends. For the year, it gained 24.2 percent and returned 26.3 percent, including dividends.

What was the average return on investments in 2023? ›

2023 returns: “Big 7” average 105.0%, S&P 500 26.3%, S&P 500 excluding “Big 7” 14.7%. 2-year cumulative returns: “Big 7” average 6.6%, S&P 500 3.4%, S&P 500 excluding “Big 7” 1.8%. Note: “Big 7” stocks represent Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon.com, NVIDIA, Tesla, and Meta Platforms.

What has been a big influence on the markets in 2023? ›

Across developed and emerging economies, stocks have powered ahead in 2023 as inflation has regressed, even with wars raging in hotspots around the world. Globally, inflation is likely to ease to 6.9% this year from 8.7% in 2022, according to the International Monetary Fund.

How much will the stock market go up in 2024? ›

The consensus 12-month analyst price target for the S&P 500 is 5,614, representing about 6.8% upside from current levels.

Should I pull my money out of the stock market? ›

It can be nerve-wracking to watch your portfolio consistently drop during bear market periods. After all, nobody likes losing money; that goes against the whole purpose of investing. However, pulling your money out of the stock market during down periods can often do more harm than good in the long term.

Is the stock market recovering in 2023? ›

Stocks move up and down frequently. Between November 2023 and early March 2024, the stock market moved higher (following a generally downward trend between August and October 2023). The market's recent strength seems to reflect, in part, expectations of a major change in Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy.

What is the safest investment with the highest return? ›

Overview: Best low-risk investments in 2024
  1. High-yield savings accounts. ...
  2. Money market funds. ...
  3. Short-term certificates of deposit. ...
  4. Series I savings bonds. ...
  5. Treasury bills, notes, bonds and TIPS. ...
  6. Corporate bonds. ...
  7. Dividend-paying stocks. ...
  8. Preferred stocks.
Apr 1, 2024

How much money do you need to retire? ›

The final multiple — 10 to 12 times your annual income at retirement age. If you plan to retire at 67, for instance, and your income is $150,000 per year, then you should have between $1.5 and $1.8 million set aside for retirement.

How much money do I need to invest to make $3,000 a month? ›

Imagine you wish to amass $3000 monthly from your investments, amounting to $36,000 annually. If you park your funds in a savings account offering a 2% annual interest rate, you'd need to inject roughly $1.8 million into the account.

Which economy will grow most in 2023? ›

Fastest Growing Economies in the World as of 2023
  • Qatar.
  • Saudi Arabia.
  • India.
  • China.
  • Thailand.
  • Japan.
  • Brazil.
  • Singapore.
Sep 15, 2023

What is the biggest economic problem for the US economy 2023? ›

The U.S. economy entered 2023 with elevated inflation and concerns by many that a recession could be imminent; it ended the year with solid economic growth, moderating inflation, healthy job growth, and low unemployment.

What stocks crashed in 2023? ›

SolarEdge, Plug Power, Moderna, and Pfizer are among the year's biggest losing stocks. Overall, 2023 was a great year for stocks, as the markets rallied to near-record highs in late December.

At what age should you get out of the stock market? ›

There are no set ages to get into or to get out of the stock market. While older clients may want to reduce their investing risk as they age, this doesn't necessarily mean they should be totally out of the stock market.

Will market bounce back in 2024? ›

While there could be a growth slowdown in the first half of 2024, experts believe growth should resume in the second half of the year. Americans faced many financial challenges this year, from persistent inflation to increasingly expensive debt.

What happens if the stock market crashes? ›

Sometimes, however, the economy turns or an asset bubble pops—in which case, markets crash. Investors who experience a crash can lose money if they sell their positions, instead of waiting it out for a rise. Those who have purchased stock on margin may be forced to liquidate at a loss due to margin calls.

What is the S&P average return in 2023? ›

The S&P 500 is up about 24% in 2023, a stunning bounce back from last year—the index's worst performance since the 2008 financial crisis. The S&P 500 is set to log its best year since 2021's 27% return.

What is the balanced fund performance in 2023? ›

Executive Summary. In 2023, the Mairs & Power Balanced Fund returned 13.39% versus a 17.76% return for the composite index and a 13.51% return for its Morningstar peer group.

What is a good rate of return on 401(k) 2023? ›

Many retirement planners suggest the typical 401(k) portfolio generates an average annual return of 5% to 8% based on market conditions. But your 401(k) return depends on different factors like your contributions, investment selection and fees. Sometimes broader trends can overwhelm these factors.

Is 2023 a good year for investing? ›

There are typically two outcomes as to what happens after an awful year like 2022—you get a bounce-back recovery, or the bad times continue. Luckily, 2023 was the former not the latter. Expected returns were higher and actual returns followed suit.

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